/hob/ - Hobbies

Kentucky Derby. Show bet on J Boys Echo.

>>36349
Welp. At least it was the minimum :|.

I lost betting on Le Pen. At least I didn't bet 2k like that other anon did.

After paying rent I have about $230(aud) left over. Out of that 30-50 dollars gets lost to bet365. I deposit 10 dollars and start to see dollar dollar signs when I put on a parlay/multi/accy.

For the wizes that actually make money with betting please give me some hints?

I know I am definitely too impulsive.

For any bet wizes, what was you best run?
I won around 600 dollars on a multi in 2014. Nothing but bad luck since then.

>>36371
>For the wizes that actually make money with betting please give me some hints?

I suppose theoretically you could place multiple very small bets on sides with very high odds of winning. You might only profit by a few cents or a dollar or two but you would make gains nevertheless. Or instead bet small amounts on teams with low odds of winning, where a single two dollar bet could cover the losses from numerous other bets with a bit of profit leftover.
Obviously in the end gambling is all down to luck, you just have to find the best way to minimise your losses. My "big" bets (20-50 dollars) never win.

>>36370
Apparently another anon his life savings (80k?). I somewhat hope that post was real and that he lost.

>>36376
I saw another about a guy taking on a 500k loan to bet on her. I doubt that one is real though.

>>36377
That sounds like /pol/'s wishful thinking, I hope no one was stupid enough to bet so big on her. She had zero chance of winning, everyone could see it coming.

>>36371
You don't make money with betting.

If you want to gamble and actually have a chance of winning, day trading is the only way to go.

With organised gambling, the games are rigged. But with day trading, the games are trying to be rigged by everyone at once so a lot of it cancels out.

Playing anything this weekend?

I've put down a few. My favourites are Koln to win @ 3.30 and Werder Bremen to win @ 2.60. Pretty solid I think, but I mixed them in with some safer bets to be, well, safe.

>>36535
>Pretty solid I think
well…

what were these other safer bets you mentioned?

>>36571
Just other Football matches with better odds.

Both of my "solid" bets lost. Though Koln was a pretty close thing and I'm surprised it failed. Overall I lost 8 euro.

>>36573
yeah I figured that I meant to ask which matches did you bet on.

>>36574
These:

Stoke v Arsenal - Arsenal @ 1.61
Nordvarmland v Lerums IS - Nordvarmland @ 1.90
Vanersborgs v Lidkopings FK - Vanersborgs @ 1.40

I want to defend horse racing. I'll tell you all what I do.

- Come to the track with a particular algorithm you want to try out. Should jockey percentages be weighted based on a moving average from race to race? How should weather influence the weights?
- At the start of the races, grab a program with all the statistics.
- Between each race you have 20-30 minutes.
- Make intricate calculation tables for all the horses.
- 5 minutes to post, have a few bets in minds. Start looking at win/place/show pools and exacta odds tables.
- 2 minutes to post, Queues for the mutuel kiosks are starting to fill up. Pools and odds are changing too wildly to figure out the optimal arbitrage opportunity.
- asdfjagpoegoaiweg minimum bet 7 to show.
- Make $0.000000000000000001
- Next race gets ready, you notice not even 30 minutes is enough time.

It's like a sport designed to pacify the inner autism. Moreover, the place I go to has a number of booths where I can just sit and tabulate the whole day. Lately, I've stopped even betting on most races because I get too caught up making tables. Nobody talks to each other, they're all too involved with their own screens, methods, and madness. You can be absolutely schizo yelling at a horse on a screen and no one bats an eye. You bet through a kiosk booth, there's no interaction necessary with anyone.

It's a wonderfully antisocial place.

>>37030
The odds on horse racing are too large for my liking. Too many horses and too many variables. At least with football there are only 3 outcomes. One team will win with the possibility of a draw. Much better chance of winning. Though I can sort of understand the non gambling aspect of it.

>It's like a sport designed to pacify the inner autism. Moreover, the place I go to has a number of booths where I can just sit and tabulate the whole day. Lately, I've stopped even betting on most races because I get too caught up making tables. Nobody talks to each other, they're all too involved with their own screens, methods, and madness. You can be absolutely schizo yelling at a horse on a screen and no one bats an eye. You bet through a kiosk booth, there's no interaction necessary with anyone.

>It's a wonderfully antisocial place.

Sounds comfy

How many times can you flip a coin and get the outcome right?

You bet a dollar on the first flip, win that you bet two dollars on the second, win that, you bet four dollars and so on. Get it correct eight times and you have 256 dollars.

Just replace the coin with a sports match where the outcome is a close to an equal win/lose. Fun thing to try with a little old dollar.

>>37322
That's a gambling fallacy it seems theoretically possible but in practice you lose.

Say you have one dollar then you bet it and get two. Then you bet two dollars and get four. Then you bet four and four and get 8 then you bet 8 and lose and then you got zero monies.

If you say had 500 dollars and did this again, then you could bet 8 again and maybe win it back but then it goes to 64 and you might lose that. If you had near infinite money then it would work but you don't have infinite money.

>>39061
>>37322
You only double the bets when you lose.
It still doesnt work in theory tho.
You have high odds that you win a small amount but low odds that you lose a pretty large amount and statistically it's below 50/50

I found the perfect gambling, putting any money into cryptocurrencies what I don't need in long term. Even if a downtrend starts and stays for years, with constant investing I hope I would never need to work again someday. If I lose everything basically nothing changed, I handle this as "smoke" money. I don't spend money for smokes, alcohol and any of these kind of stuff, my daily dose is to check my crypto amounts and imagine what I would do if that worth like 1000x more. Oh and recently found out the ICOs, I try to buy anything with interest paying. I imagine myself as a cybperpunk Warren Buffet or who was got rich by buying vonstantly divident paying stocks. I will get rich with divident paying crypto based projects. I wanted to kill myself as a workslave basically no wealth can be reached. I need to work my ass of for 10-20 years to save every penny to afford to buy myself a small flat in a ghetto territory. Fuck that shit I'm gonna get rich in that timeframe or kill myself, I don't want to work until end of my life.

>>39062
When you double your bets when you lose and you still lose then you have to double it again to make back the losses. And like I said before if you had an ideal limitl we amount of.
Money it work because you will make some wins and double your money but if you make too many losses you need enough money to double it again and the bets stack up really quickly

>>39069
My father told me to start investing in bitcoins but I have no fucking clue about that whole thing so yeah idk

>>37322
Yes but that's very unlikely to happen. Take 3 flips for example. The space of possible outcomes is:
TTT
TTH
THT
THH
HTT
HTH
HHT
HHH

Probability of winning all flips: 1/8

Probability of making a non-neglibible profit (THH + HHH): 1/4

If we group together the outcomes of wasting your time getting your dollar back and taking a lose as "bad outcomes", then you're far more likely to get a bad outcome than a good outcome. So this is delusion.

>>39093
I once won 12 times in a row playing red/black in roulette. It is certainly possible if incredibly unlikely.

it's really hard to make a living off of gambling alone, especially if it is supposed to be steady.

i would suggest to study a particular sport like horse betting or baseball for example. do as many dry runs as you would like and once you feel comfortable in your wagering skills, sell tips to strangers in parlors or online. advertize yourself having a 40% success rate or something.

another way of making cash would be to become extremly proficient at for example poker which is a skill game. once you become really good, go to casinos and hustle people with no skill out of their money. the best method would be to choose a busy saturday night instead of a slow wednesday afternoon as the probability to meet people that have considerable skill are higher when you visit the casino at weird times.

or just become a fraudster.

>>39217
The only ones making a living off gambling are bookmakers and mobsters.

I can't believe people buy betting tips online, nobody can be this stupid.

>>39233
theres no money in gambling in an orthodox manner. you really need to work outside the box

Gambling isn't wise honestly.

>>39071
when your boomer father suggests you to invest in bitcoin then you know that the bullrun is over. glad i cashed out my gains before the dumb money got in

>What are you betting on lads?
bitcoin

>>40039
btc is 99% of my net worth atm.
When I started buying it was not even 5%. The price increase is ridiculous and I wish I did not waste 15K on silver and instead bought more BTC with it.

It is not a ponzi scheme but more like a commodity. Similar to gold, just better to hide and easier to transport. Of course if you missed the train you might be frustrated.

>>36370
She had no chance against Attali and Rotschild's champion.

>>40040
Missing the train is one thing, watching the train go by thinking 'it's gonna crash, there's only one track' the whole time is what causes frustration. There's also the 'well you missed the train' every year for the past 6 years.
Not really for me though. I have an extremely risk-averse personality and I recognise that.

It will crash though. At least now it's got chinese hyper-bankers trying to keep it afloat, but when it crashes it'll take the chinese economy with it this time. Which makes it probably quite a decent investment since there's an entire country that's going to be desperate to keep it alive.

I gamble csgo skins for fun and am up over $1100 paypal on them in the last month. It's a nice feeling

My life has been ruined by betting. Starting from age 18, I watch three or four tennis matches per day, which takes up around 12 hours. After spending so much time on gambling, I should be in profit, right? No, I've lost about $15,000.

>>40065
Please tell me how do you get skins and bet with them? Do you earn skins just by playing CS:GO?

>>40066
It's easy, just buy them from a 3rd party like opskins or bitskins. Then, find a betting site like csgofast or csgo reaper. A lot of people do what they call coinflips where you put a csgo skin of say $10 up against another person's $10 csgo skin and a randomizer chooses which person wins.

I was really lucky with jackpot/raffle bets where everyone puts their skins of whatever value in a big pot and a randomizer chooses the winning percentage. Good luck with your bets!

Cryptocurrency

Invested about 500 into Monero a few days ago and about 20 into Asch

Three parts:
1. Knowing the probability of a win

2. Position Sizing

3. Knowing yourself

If you want to gamble, master these three properly first. Go download the practice Forex program from Oanda's website, they have a really easy to understand Forex program. This is because anyone in the forex game wants you to trade, because they know you'll lose 90% of your money within 90 days. 90% of people do this, by the way, this is how all markets work. Gambling has a higher success rate if you do it correctly because all you have to do is risk management, trading is like recreating a casino from scratch for every single trade. That's how the Goldman-Sachs guys do it.
As for knowing yourself and position sizing, that budgeting. You don't spend what you can't afford to lose, and if you don't feel okay losing the money don't bet. If you play the hope game, you'll always play the hope game, that's why Kaji always lost. He was always thinking, I can go even farther. No you can't. Figure out how much to bet by your final total, not the game at the time. If you get up 300 and you bet 100, time to scoot.
Lots of people, most, will think, I just won 300 from 100, now I should bet MORE, no. You bet less. You bet 50, and if you lose it, you're done. Now you're at 250, 150 up over your original 100, and you need to leave.
This is the main thing that kills gamblers. You need to walk away right when you've won, because the winning part wasn't supposed to happen. Now you have luck, now you have to leave. All the rest is a lie. Everything, from the carpets to the succubi to the drinks to the games, they are all lies to keep your money from staying in your pocket when the night is done.
A winner should quit immediately. The game's result tells you what to do, not you. The market tells you what to do, not you. Managing how much you put in is the best way to ensure a victory by minimizing losses.

For trading, you can't just be right, you have to be right more times than you are wrong, and you have to be right by a large amount. That's extremely difficult, because there is no end to the information you get from the market and the market will always win. This is why they say 'cut your losses quick and let winners run'.

For Forex, open a trade, buy or sell it doesn't matter. Stare at that number. Let it run for days. Don't close the trade. You'll understand after awhile all of this. Only your bank account at the end of the night matters, and money only matters on what you decide to spend it on in the first place.
If you let money control you, don't gamble.

>>40074
what a bizarre shell game this whole system is.

>some people win because most people lose

isn't this literally just a ponzi scheme?

>>40086
most things are a ponzi scheme. For example, when a thing grows the ones who were there before it grew benefit the most. That's just how the universe works. This not only applies to scams, it applies to anything. Countries, pensions, banks, stocks, the use of fiat currencies, companies, etc.

>>40087
How I like to think of it is a firstfag yelling "==FIRST!=="

>>40001
retard

>>40086
"shell game" isn't exactly the point here.
The entire financial system(read books by James Rickards i.e The Death of Money)is as far as I can tell unicorn farts.
This is why you have things like NEETbux and Universal Basic Income coming in the future. Most people don't know it, but the Google guys explain in books they put out to the public for years now explaining that UBI is essentially necessary because we need to reduce use of resources and the only way to do this without total chaos is to restrict the cash flow via the government. Everyone on food stamps, everyone going to food banks, etc.
I just came back from a food bank, they all have tablet computers. The government has this planned out for the next 50-60 yrs or so, that's just how they operate on a basic level, this isn't even some Illuminati or deep state kung fu chinese shit, this is regular people doing regular jobs at the International Monetary Fund, the U.N, the Federal Reserve, etc.

So, the whole economy is a bunch of electronic tokens(only 3% of money is cash, rest is credit)that doesn't even exist getting pushed around to push around resources in the physical world.
I'm not even getting into things like QE4 and shadow derivatives. Just imagine a magic trick on a global scale and the rabbit never comes out of the hat because if it does we all die.
Pro side- if you can manage your emotions you can live a quiet life away from the norms and get decent healthcare because the system is flooding with unicorn fart money for the near future.
Rich/clever people are floating gods that rule over all and swim in drugs, sex, and more drugs and sex.

Cons- Middle class(anyone who works for a living) gets shat on for trying to actually work for a living and their cost of living will always be getting worse. Anyone who needs medical care and isn't on the government programs pretty much has to choose debt or substandard care that poors get for free.

>>40087
It's only really a scheme once it blows up. When the U.S was young, no one wanted to give us money, then Ben Franklin literally went around France and Spain fucking all the old succubi to fund America and saved the nation with his magic wand and the power of love.

>>36348
i made $20 on the weekend playing blackjack at niagara falls

>>40124
all of this shit is totally disconnected from reality as far as i can tell.

it seems like we could replace the entire market system with a market system where it's all fake

IE, you buy things that are 100% not real, and it would still work because money is moving through the system.

hell if you could convince people that it worked in a certain way a totally fake system might work better than something even tenuously tied to reality.

this system has grown so out of control that it has become an end in itself that everyone takes for granted.

people spend their whole lives moving essentially non-existent goods around and generate money for themselves and others based on stuff that does not exist now and likely never will.

it's baffling to be born into a world where the basic tenets of civilized society are all nonsensical.

>>36348
lost two grand margin trading bitcoin

>>40129
>this system has grown so out of control that it has become an end in itself that everyone takes for granted.
>people spend their whole lives moving essentially non-existent goods around and generate money for themselves and others based on stuff that does not exist now and likely never will.

So what should we do in this situation?

>>40074
thank you for the great advice

>>40296
>out of control
No, the system is in the most control in the history of mankind. Back in the egyptian era they had futures, that was where you agreed to buy a farmers goods at a preset price no matter what happens. If the price of the farmers goods rose, the farmer lost out on money, and if the price fell the buyer had to pay more for the goods because of the futures contract.
The only difference now is that there are people who are pushing the fiscal system to it's utmost limits. They've been doing this forever, because they know the truth of the financial system which is that all of it is to maintain order and distribution of resources in society. However, they added shit on, and the secret of the American economy is that we've been taking on so much credit and debt to keep the ball rolling to keep everyone in this massive fantasy of growth. This all isn't possible unless the math checks out, unless people get value(i.e resources/goods etc) for their money. Imagine a guy spinning a bunch of plates, that is what these people are doing and they(hopefully) are the smartest and most cunning in the world running it.

>People spend lives doing blah de blah

That's not what's happening. The financial system is a fantasy tacked onto reality that allows ease of trust with others. Instead of trying to work out complex systems of trust and reliance, you just give them a number. This number has been digital for years now. Not only that, now the number is going to be able to be programmable, that's the extra advantage of crypto.
What you 'should' do is simple, work and learn.
As a human you really have no choice but to work on something. You'll always have this 'void' if you aren't dedicating yourself to mastery and knowledge of something. Most people have kids, you need something to work on.
Money is a tool. If you think for a second that a number will save you, you're wrong. That number in your bank account is what lets you get what you need and want, it limits you, and that's about all money is good for.
Like drugs or sex or god or people, it's all the same. Because it's useful, you want to rely on it. Instead of committing yourself to your desire and work to be happy and satisfied in this world, you've made a fatal mistake believing that any of those things will fix your life.
It's an unfortunate truth but there's nothing wrong with your life, as a human. It's you who believes your life is wrong. You were taught that your life is wrong. Children do not think that way, humans that grow up in other cultures have no concept of a wrong life, or a not good enough life. They don't beat themselves up and feel sorry for themselves because they don't have that thing they want because no one told them that they needed it to live.
You don't need anything, not even your body, not even your life. This is all extra. This is all a situation that the dice roll of the universe planted at your feet. You want more? Get more. Work and learn. You want to complain, then complain. However, do not be surprised when you find yourself miserable and question yourself incessantly why. Because I have just told you the truth at the bottom of the human spirit that I gleaned from years of study and observation.
Those who suffer for what they want, who speak heroic truth in every moment, and deal in the realities in front of them are happy people. They are engaged, they are strong, they are resilient, and money does not control them. The lies that others tell does not control them.
They are human.
You are human.

>>41259
cute story chad

Poker is my job.